Forecast skill for predicting distribution shifts: A retrospective experiment for marine fishes in the Eastern Bering Sea

Forecasting distribution shifts under novel environmental conditions is a major task for ecologists and conservationists. Researchers forecast distribution shifts using several tools including: predicting from an empirical relationship between a summary of distribution (population centroid) and annual time series (“annual regression,” AR); or fitting a habitat‐envelope model to historical distribution and forecasting given predictions of future environmental conditions (“habitat envelope,” HE). However, surprisingly little research has estimated forecast skill by fitting to historical data, forecasting distribution shifts and comparing forecasts with subsequent observations of distribution shifts. I demonstrate the important role of retrospective skill testing by forecasting poleward movement over 1‐, 2‐ or 3‐year periods for 20 fish and crab species in the Eastern Bering Sea and comparing forecasts with observed shifts. I specifically introduce an alternative vector‐autoregressive spatio‐temporal (VAST) forecasting model, which can include species temperature responses, and compare skill for AR, HE and VAST forecasts. Results show that the HE forecast has 30%–43% greater variance than predicting that future distribution is identical to the estimated distribution in the final year (a “persistence” forecast). Meanwhile, the AR explains 2%–6% and VAST explains 8%–25% of variance in poleward movement, and both have better performance than a persistence forecast. HE and AR both generate forecast intervals that are too narrow, while VAST models with or without temperature have appropriate width for forecast intervals. Retrospective skill testing for more regions and taxa should be used as a test bed to guide future improvements in methods for forecasting distribution shifts.     

印榕仙人掌栽培和胭脂虫养殖技术

用胭脂虫干体加工提取的胭脂红，广泛应用于食品、医药、纺织和化妆等行业。胭脂虫（Dactylopius coccus costa）的唯一寄主是仙人掌。中国林科院资源昆虫研究所从墨西哥等地引种印榕仙人掌（Opuntia ficus-indica（L））在元江等地取得成功。文章介绍了印榕仙人掌的栽培和胭脂虫的养殖技术。     

滇西北亚高山地区云南红豆杉扦插育苗技术

对云南红豆杉在云南省迪庆州的扦插育苗技术流程(从苗圃地的选择、整地、作床、搭棚,到插穗的采集与处理方法、扦插密度、季节与方法,再到插后的温度、湿度控制,除草,施肥,病虫害防治措施等)进行了论述,并对其中的技术要点作了总结.     

ASP技术在云南林业调查规划网的开发与应用中的探讨

以Internet为体系结构，采用ASP技术开发了林业快讯信息采编发布管理系统，实现信息的发布和管理，建立了云南林业调查规划网网站。探讨了在Web程序开发应用中，ASP技术的优势和特点。     

基于互惠式校企合作的技能培训体系架构--以家具制造业为例

基于互惠模式,通过整合校企资源、调整组织形式等措施,对校企合作中的技能培训提出改进思路,探索家具制造业实用人才的培养模式。     

生物多样性经济价值评估研究进展

介绍了国内外关于自然资源的价值构成及其源泉的研究成果,其中生物多样性所表现出来的经济价值是自然资源价值的重要组成部分,因此自然资源的核算是生物多样性经济价值评估的起点。在叙述自然资源核算研究进展的基础上,总结了环境资源价值的分类以及生物多样性经济价值的研究进展。然后介绍了生物多样性价值评估技术与方法的进展,对生物多样性经济价值评估理论与方法进行了思考,指出了目前的研究中仍存在的不足。     

基层农业机械化技术推广工作存在的问题与对策

农业是我国国民经济的基础，农业的生产受到党中央的高度重视，先进的农业机械化技术水平可以有效地提高农业的生产。农业机械化技术的推广受到很多因素的制约，因此，在实际的工作中，应分析解决这些问题，让基层农业机械化技术的推广能有效开展。     

南方旱地作物栽培模式及发展趋势

该文介绍了20世纪80年代以来,我国南方旱地主要作物栽培模式的演变形式,不同栽培模式的技术要点。根据现代农业发展的迫切需求、中国农村劳动力严重缺乏等现状,解析了当前农村土地流转的实际形式以及取得的部分成绩,展望了南方旱地农业,农村产业发展的方向。为南方旱地农业的发展提供借鉴。     

提高认识,转变观念,加快推进甘蔗生产机械化

简述了湛江垦区甘蔗的生产现状、生产中存在的主要问题及垦区甘蔗生产机械化开展情况。提出只有提高认识,转变观念,就能大力发展甘蔗生产机械化。     

The impact of increasing farm size and mechanization on rural income and rice production in Zhejiang province,China

Economic growth in China’s agricultural sector lags behind growth in industry and services, creating an ever widening rural–urban income gap. Development of the non-agricultural sectors offers new opportunities for farmers in China’s more advanced provinces such as Zhejiang. Increased income in the urban sector creates markets for new products, and migrating farmers rent their land to those staying. Until now, the prevailing rice-based systems have been managed mainly using manual labour and animal traction, but the larger farms resulting from migration may facilitate, or even require mechanization. In this study, we use a simulation model of the farm household to analyse the effects of increasing farm size and the transition from rice to vegetable production, while also studying the effects of mechanization.